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Why The Monsoon Is The Most Important Factor Impacting Growth This Year?


For most of us who woke up to the blink and you will miss showers this morning, it was the most exhilarating feeling this morning. Yes most parts of the nation is absolutely parched and is desperate for rains in whatever form they can receive it. Infact a below normal monsoon this year could severely impact growth and other economic indicators in a nation that has already been witnessing drought conditions for two years in a row.

The continuing heatwave across the better part of the nation only abetted the worries. However the Met Department of India has indicated that the Monsoons are already advancing and covered Andaman region. A cyclone around the Bay Of Bengal is also set to make a landfall bringing respite to the eastern coast. The hope is that the progress of the monsoon winds across the rest of the country too remains at par with the current development.

Not only is it important to address the really worrying water crisis in the country and the near drought situation in this agriculture dominant economy but even the markets is relying heavily on a normal monsoon. Most experts believe that a below par monsoon can lead to severe correction in the market and the inflation level which is currently around 5% mark could move northwards in case the monsoons disappoint.  

The fact is despite 2 consecutive poor monsoon spells, there has been big improvement in India’s key macro-economic indicators. The global headwinds weer more or less ofset by the low oil prices internationally and a normally monsoon at this rate can really provide teh necessary fillip to the economy.

On the contrary a poor monsoon this year would make it three years of poor monsoon and a once in hundred year predicament that most sane thinking individuals would shudder to visualise. It is needless to mention that weak agricultural output will be a direct impact of bad monsoons in a country that is still not particularly connected by an efficient irrigation network.

Therefore all eyes at this moment are pointing heavenwards wishing for more rains and a normal monsoon. We at Clamorworld join the nation is praying for rainy times ahead!

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