Almost like clockwork the monsoon and the monsoon prediction come hand in hand. It will not be wrong to say that as the scorching summers draw to an end, the monsoon predictions become almost a national obsession. From political forums to national television and even kitty parties, the monsoon predictions take centre-stage.

But have you wondered why monsoon rains and prediction about them are so important? Is it only because agriculture comprises such an important part of our economy. While it is true that a deficit monsoon results in serious draught conditions and impacts the economy but the dynamics of monsoon are very different. Monsoon in India plays a crucial role in determining even the global pricing dynamics in several key world markets like commodities.

• In fact, the impact on inflation is one of the most important reason why monsoon prediction is so important in India. A good monsoon can ensure bumper crop production and bring down inflation. But the lack of proper storage can also convert the bumper output into a liability.
• The impact on agriculture is undeniably there. A proper monsoon will play a crucial role in ensuring adequate water supply in reservoirs. So a good monsoon will reduce chances of crop failure, boost rural spending and create better prospects of economic growth.
• A normal monsoon prediction also impacts economic growth projections. In fact, according to economic pundits a good monsoon prediction like this year’s can actually act like a swing factor boosting the economic estimates
• The consumer spending trends are also dictated by the monsoon prediction. A good monsoon generally dictates better and faster growth in FMCG sales and even sectors like fertilizer are impacted.
• Cement sales and housing are also dependent on monsoon. Close to 40-45% of cement consumption is for rural housing. Therefore, needless to mention, it impacts the overall cement sales and economic expansion in the country.

Therefore, the monsoon prediction is not just about adequate water supply but in many ways it is the most important factor in deciding the economic, political and overall spending trends in the country.

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